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BACKGROUND: The monitoring of reproduction number over time provides feedback on the effectiveness of interventions and on the need to intensify control efforts. Hence, we aimed to compute basic (R0) and real-time (Rt) reproduction number and predict the trend and the size of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the center of Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the 887 confirmed cases of COVID-19 from February 20, 2020, to April 17, 2020 in the center of Iran. We considered three scenarios for serial intervals (SIs) with gamma distribution. Rt was calculated by the sequential Bayesian and time-dependent methods. Based on a branching process using the Poisson distributed number of new cases per day, the daily incidence and cumulative incidence for the next 30 days were predicted. The analysis was applied in R packages 3.6.3 and STATA 12.0. RESULTS: The model shows that the Rt of COVID-19 has been decreasing since the onset of the epidemic. According to three scenarios based on different distributions of SIs in the past 58 days from the epidemic, Rt has been 1.03 (0.94, 1.14), 1.05 (0.96, 1.15), and 1.08 (0.98, 1.18) and the cumulative incidence cases will be 360 (180, 603), 388 (238, 573), and 444 (249, 707) for the next 30 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: Based on the real-time data extracted from the center of Iran, Rt has been decreasing substantially since the beginning of the epidemic, and it is expected to remain almost constant or continue to decline slightly in the next 30 days, which is consequence of the schools and universities shutting down, reduction of working hours, mass screening, and social distancing.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: To have a thorough understanding of epidemic surveillance, it is essential to broaden our knowledge of death tolls worldwide. This study aimed to determine the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and predictors of mortality among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional design, all COVID-19 patients with a positive polymerase chain reaction test in the population covered by Arak University of Medical Sciences (AUMS) were entered to the study. Data collection was conducted by phone interview. The study variables comprised age, sex, coronary heart diseases, diabetes, and some symptoms at admission. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by logistic regression. The direct method was applied to calculate ASMR (per 100,000) of COVID-19. The analysis was applied by STATA software 12.0. RESULTS: A total of 208 cases of COVID-19 (out of 3050 total infected cases) were dead and 2500 cases were recovered. The mean age of dead patients was 70 years. The COVID-19 fatality rate in the population equaled 6.8%; in those patients who were 70 years old or more, however, the case fatality rate was 16.4%. The ASMR of COVID-19 was 12.9 (CI 95%: 11.2, 14.8). The odds of COVID-19-related death in the age over 60 were 10.87 (CI 95%: 6.30, 18.75) times than lower 45 years old. Moreover, it was observed that COVID-19 significantly increased the odds of COVID-19-related death in diabetes patients (OR = 1.45, CI 95%: 1.02, 2.06, P = 0.036). CONCLUSION: The ASMR of COVID-19 was relatively higher in males than females. In general, the COVID-19 fatality rate was relatively high. We found that older age and diabetes can have impact on the death of COVID-19, but the headache was found to have a negative association with the COVID-19-related death.
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BACKGROUND: The first case of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) was reported in Iran on February 19, 2020. This study aimed to assess the characteristics and reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 in Markazi province in Iran. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study. Confirmed cases (N=2430) in the regions covered by Arak University of Medical Sciences from Feb 20 to Aug 26, 2020 were enrolled in the study. The included variables were clinical and demographic characteristics of COVID-19 patients. The case fatality rate (CFR), incidence rates, and R were estimated based on the daily reported data. For estimating R, generation time was assumed on multi scenarios. R was estimated by R0-package. Moreover, Chi square test was applied. All the analyses were performed in STATA, Excel, ArcMap and R. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. CONCLUSION: As R is slightly high, the risk of epidemic has reduced gradually. However, observing social distance and related guidelines are still recommended.
ABSTRACT
Background: The spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed high threats on global health, life and work style, and social and economic development. The current study aimed to extract knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to COVID-19 among the general population in the central area of Iran. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Arak City between April and May 2020. Stratified random sampling was applied to select the study participants. Phone interview was applied to collect the data. Data were collected using a questionnaire that was constructed and validated in this study. The questionnaire included demographic variables and items about knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward COVID-19. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted in STATA software. Results: In total, 544 participants completed the questionnaire; 76% of the participants accounted COVID-19 as a high threat 1 month from the onset of COVID-19. From the maximum attainable scores of 1, 6, and 6, for COVID-19-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices, means of 0.77 (0.13), 4.97 (0.63), and 5.35 (0.70) were obtained, respectively. Females had a higher practice score (5.4 ± 0.6). The participants with a family history of heart and respiratory diseases had significantly higher attitude and practice scores. SMS from the Ministry of Health had a significant impact on knowledge, attitude, and practice scores (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Higher attention should be given to increase the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of men and the housewife group. COVID-19 preventive messaging from the Ministry of Health was among the most influential methods of increasing knowledge that attracted public attention.